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| Award/Grant Name:
Macroeconomic Impacts of Demographic Change in Scotland |
| Award/Grant Holder:
Professor Peter McGregor |
| Co-applicant(s):
Professor Robert Wright, Professor Kim Swales |
| Start Date:
29/03/2005 |
End Date:
28/03/2006 |
| Award/Grant Description |
The current demographic situation in Scotland is characterized by below replacement level fertility (ie deaths exceed births), gradually decreasing mortality (ie increasing life expectancy) and zero net migration (the number of immigrants balances the number of emigrants). If there are no major changes in these factors two things will happen to the Scottish population in the future. First, it will continue to decrease in size. Second, it will continue to age rapidly, with a rising share of the total population accumulating in the older age groups.
The scale of this expected change over the next four decades is considerable. According to the most recently available set of population projections carried out by Government Actuary’s Department (GAD), the population of Scotland will decline from its current level of about 5 million to 4.5 million by 2043 - a decrease of about 10 per cent. As the population shrinks, its age distribution will also change dramatically. In this research project we shall explore: the consequences of the GAD projections for the Scottish economy; the economic impact of alternative projections of net migration, and the likely effects of policies such the Fresh Talent Initiative.
| Keywords:
Scotland, demographics |
| Award/Grant Amount |
ESRC Grant Number |
Institution |
Discipline |
Award/Grant Type |
| £51,501.26 |
RES-342-25-0002 |
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Economics |
Substantive Research Contract |
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Award/Grant Outputs and Documents
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Click on  to download the
document. |
Number of Documents:
4 |
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