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Scotland’s fertility has recently fallen to very low levels and has been lower than fertility in England for over two decades. This study asks why Scotland has lower fertility than England, given that the two countries share many common features. Data from different sources is linked to individual records from the British Household Panel Survey to allow an assessment of the contribution of population composition, socio-economic context, socio-cultural context and institutional setting to the explanation. Survival analysis is used to identify those variables most strongly associated with cross-country differences in two major fertility outcomes: age at first birth and the time interval between first and second birth. To date no research has attempted to tease out the relative contribution of such a comprehensive set of factors.

Since low fertility has been identified as a main driver of population decline and ageing, there is an urgent need for a better understanding of why Scotland’s fertility is low, and lower than in other parts of the UK. The project will contribute to the knowledge base required if policy intervention is contemplated. Its findings will thus be of interest to academics from various disciplines (including demography, economics, geography and sociology), and to politicians and the media.

Award/Grant Outputs and Documents
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